Demographic information and demand forecasting
Coventry City Council is ranked the 54th most deprived local authority of 317 in England.
Coventry’s population is growing, changing and increasingly diverse. In the past ten years, Coventry’s population has grown by a fifth, making it the second-fastest growing local authority outside of London. In 2016-17, its growth rate was the seventh highest.
Coventry is a diverse and cohesive city with a relatively young population, in 2021, just over one-fifth (22%) of the city’s population were children and young people aged under 18, and the city had a median age of 32 years compared to the UK average of 40 years. In recent years, the city has experienced an 8.9% growth in its population, from 316,915 in 2011 to 345,300 residents on Census Day 2021. This is higher than the rate in the West Midlands (6.2%) or England (6.6%).
The city’s growth is a consequence of international migration as well as births. As a result, the city is becoming increasingly diverse. In the 2011 census, 33% of the population identified as people of Black and Minority Ethnic (BME) background, compared to 22% in 2001. It is likely that the population has become even more diverse in recent years since 2011.
According to the latest school census, 52% of Coventry’s school children are from a BME background, up from 38% in 2011. The biggest population growth in school children is seen in Black African, Asian Other and White Other groups.
On 31st March 2023 there were 724 Children Looked After (CLA). The profile of our CLA is based on those in care at the end of March 2023. 724 CLA represents 1% of the Coventry child population. Naturally the number of Looked After Children fluctuates, rising and falling across the year.
Table 2 shows the rate of children looked after per 10,000 children aged under 18 years on 31 March for the last 5 years. On 31 March 2023, the rate of Looked After Children was 89.6 per 10,000 children aged under 18 years and is similar to 2019. The fluctuations in numbers over the last 5 years, with increased numbers post-Covid reflects a similar pattern to national, statistical neighbour and West Midlands rates.
Location |
2018-19 |
2019-20 |
2020-21 |
2021-22 |
2022-23 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coventry |
89.0 |
88.0 |
92.0 |
94.0 |
89.6 |
England |
65.0 |
67.0 |
67.0 |
70.0 |
N/A |
Statistical Neighbours |
88.4 |
89.7 |
87.7 |
89.2 |
N/A |
West Midlands |
82.0 |
82.0 |
85.0 |
88.0 |
N/A |
Overall available data shows in March 2022 94 per 10,000 was higher than England as a whole at 70 per 10,000 and 89.2 and 88 for Statistical Neighbours and the West Midlands respectively. Coventry’s rate had dropped in the March 2023 figures but national and statistical neighbour comparators are not yet available.
Fluctuations in numbers of CLA, particularly recently can, in part, be attributed to the cost-of-living crisis, impact of Covid pandemic and an increase in Unaccompanied Asylum-Seeking Children amongst other factors.
The chart below gives a detailed breakdown of the type of provision where CLA were placed on 31 March for the previous 5 years.
Placement |
2018/19 |
2019/20 |
2020/21 |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Foster placements |
497 71% |
508 72% |
543 73% |
534 74% |
506 70% |
Placed for adoption |
22 3% |
C C |
26 3% |
15 2% |
19 2% |
Placement with parents |
48 7% |
42 6% |
40 5% |
39 5% |
48 6% |
Secure units |
C C |
C C |
C C |
0 0% |
0 0% |
Children's homes |
61 9% |
57 8% |
78 10% |
76 11% |
71 10% |
Supported accommodation |
61 9% |
56 8% |
48 6% |
53 7% |
78 11% |
Other residential settings |
12 2% |
C C |
9 1 |
C C |
C C |
Residential schools |
0 0% |
C C |
C C |
0 0% |
0 0% |
Other placement |
0 0% |
0 0% |
0 0% |
C C |
0 0% |
All children looked after |
703 100% |
701 100% |
747 100% |
723 100% |
730 100% |
Total in placement (excl. UASC) |
666 95% |
679 97% |
729 98% |
683 94% |
659 90% |
Total children in placement (UASC) |
37 5% |
22 3% |
18 2% |
40 6% |
71 10% |
The figures show the majority of CLA are placed in foster care.
Coventry is looking for providers of both residential care and fostering, who will work with foster carers to support young people to step across or step down from residential care and provide support to both the child and the carers to make a successful move. On occasion there can be an inappropriate demand on Residential places where there is shortfall in Fostering sufficiency.
Whilst this period has seen fluctuations in the number of CLA in all age groups, the proportions of children in each placement type have not changed significantly. Similar to national trends and statistical partners, there are high numbers of adolescents amongst Coventry’s CLA population and a changing number of Unaccompanied Asylum-Seeking Children (UASC).
Age/Gender |
2018/19 Count % |
2019/20 Count % |
2020/21 Count % |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age: Under 1 |
45 6% |
34 5% |
52 7% |
48 7% |
39 5% |
|||||
Age: 1 to 4 |
111 16% |
114 16% |
134 18% |
123 17% |
132 18% |
|||||
Age: 5 to 9 |
127 18% |
128 18% |
130 17% |
126 17% |
121 17% |
|||||
Age: 10 to 15 |
249 35% |
262 37% |
277 37% |
267 37% |
241 33% |
|||||
Age: 16 and over |
171 24% |
163 23% |
154 21% |
159 22% |
191 26% |
|||||
Male |
399 57% |
389 55% |
404 54% |
418 58% |
422 60% |
|||||
Female |
304 43% |
312 45% |
343 46% |
305 42% |
291 40% |
|||||
All LAC 31 March |
703 100% |
701 100% |
747 100% |
723 100% |
735 100% |
Young people aged 10-15 made up 33% of all CLA on 31 March 2023 which is a decrease of 4% from March 2022. While the number aged 16 and over has increased from 22% from March 2022 to 26% on 31 March 2023, this is in large part due to the increase in UASC of that age.
The overall ratio of girls to boys among Coventry’s CLA in March 2023 is 40% female and 60% male (similar to national averages). For more information on our local context please see the Coventry Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA) Coventry JSNA.
The ethnic profile of CLA over the last 5 years to 31 March 2023 is relatively unchanged, though numbers of White children have been falling since 2020/21 whilst numbers of Asian or Asian British have increased over the 5 year period.
Ethnicity | 2018/19 Count % |
2019/20 Count % |
2020/21 Count % |
2021/22 Count % |
2022/23 Count % |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
White |
465 66% |
481 69% |
514 69% |
489 68% |
473 65% |
|||||
Mixed Heritage |
120 17% |
112 16% |
132 18% |
114 16% |
108 15% |
|||||
Asian or Asian British |
35 5% |
31 4% |
33 4% |
46 6% |
57 8% |
|||||
Black or Black British |
63 9% |
56 8% |
48 6% |
52 7% |
56 8% |
|||||
Other ethnic groups |
c c |
c c |
c c |
16 2% |
23 3% |
|||||
Other |
c c |
c c |
c c |
6 1% |
7 1% |
As of 31 March 2023, White children are still over-represented but have reduced from 68% to 65% of the CLA population, followed by Mixed Heritage (15%), Asian or Asian British (8%) and Black or Black British (8%) with 3% Other Ethnic Groups and 1% Other.
Coventry’s trend is like that of statistical neighbours. However, whilst Asian or Asian British and Black or Black British are not disproportionately represented compared to the Coventry population as a whole, 16% of CLA are Mixed Race, compared to the Coventry population where Mixed Race accounts for 10%.
Numbers of Coventry CLA with a statement of SEN or an Education, Health and Care Plan (EHCP) and those with SEN have risen since 2018/19, which is broadly similar to Statistical Neighbours and nationally. With disruption to schools during the Covid pandemic and lockdown, there is not an effective data set for 2021/22 and data is not available for 2022/23 but numbers are likely to have risen alongside increased numbers in the general population.
Child | 2018/19 Count % |
2019/20 Count % |
2020/21 Count % |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CLA with a statement or EHCP |
80 25% |
97 27% |
98 28% |
|||
CLA with SEN |
171 53% |
193 54% |
199 56% |
Autistic Spectrum Conditions (ASC) are a specific area of need. Assessments for ASC are an issue for all children and young people in Coventry, not just for CLA. With children and young people having to wait longer for an assessment, there may be hidden need linked to ASC, especially for those who are not presenting with assessed Learning Disabilities who would be receiving wider support.