3.0 Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience

Goal: Reduce the impacts of extreme weather and climate change and enable quicker recovery through creating a more resilient city

Our Changing Weather Patterns

3.1 2023 was the world’s warmest year on record and Europe is warming at twice the global rate, with record breaking temperatures in England reaching 40ºC last summer which are set to become more common. The impacts of the changing climate are already being felt in many parts of the world, there has been an increase in droughts and famine, forest fires, tornadoes, hurricanes and major floods causing a significant loss of life, environmental and economic damage. Whilst we aim to limit global warming to 1.5ºC, the evidence shows that we must be prepared for warming up to 4ºC (UK Climate Risk Assessment).

3.2 Coventry is likely to experience warmer wetter winters, hotter drier summers and more intense rainfall and storms. During the 20th century the average annual temperature for the West Midlands rose by 0.6o C, the growing season lengthened by 30 days and our summers now are 37% drier on average than they were in 1995. Figure 2 below highlights an increasing frequency of rising temperatures over the last few decades.

Temperature change in Coventry from 1850 to 2023 from Institute for Environmental Analytics 2023

3.3 The changes in weather patterns over the last 30 years are highlighted below. This illustrates that temperatures have risen across the whole country, and whilst some areas have become drier overall the majority of the country has become wetter.

Uk temperature and rainfall changes from 1991 - 2020, compare with a baseline from 1961 - 1990 (Met Office, 2020)

3.4 The result of these changes means that 10,560 properties in the city are currently identified at risk of flooding, which can have devastating impacts for communities and businesses and poses a risk of rising insurance premiums. 69 neighbourhoods within Coventry are considered high-risk in terms of vulnerability to periods of extreme heat, posing a serious risk to public health. We can also expect to see more storms and stronger winds, which are a risk to property and trees. We are also vulnerable to the impacts of climate extremes experienced in other parts of the world, which could cause food and water shortages and drive prices up. Closer to home, periods of drought and pressure on our water supply infrastructure could threaten our drinking water supply which could have significant public health impacts.

3.5 The impacts of climate change could affect many areas of our lives, ranging from health, infrastructure, the environment and economy and are likely to most severely impact the most vulnerable in society. This is an important consideration for the wider work the city needs to undertake to address inequalities and deliver a ‘Just Transition’ and will help to inform where priority action takes place.

3.6 Future projections of the impact of climate change on our weather patterns have been developed by scientists looking at concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which directly affect temperature and weather systems. The following sections explore the recent trends and projected changes to our weather systems and likely local impacts, alongside actions we can take to mitigate against them.

Rainfall and Flood Risk

3.7 The West Midlands Climate Change Adaptation Plan identifies areas of flood risk for the region, the East of Coventry is shown to be a high-risk area for vulnerability to flooding and without intervention flooding incidents will increase. We know that prolonged periods of heavy rainfall are likely to become more frequent, which will put more parts of the city at risk without interventions being put in place to increase resilience.

3.8 There are two main types of flooding with different levels of risk and impacts attached to them. Fluvial flooding is when a river overflows onto the floodplain following periods of sustained or intense rainfall. Surface water flooding occurs when the sewer and road drainage system is unable to cope with the high volumes of water from intense or prolonged rainfall.

Figure 4 - Infrastructure Climate Vulnerability hotspots for the West Midlands (West Midlands Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2021-2026)

3.9 The two main rivers that feed Coventry, the Sherbourne and Sowe have what is described as ‘flashy’ catchments, meaning these show a rapid response to rainfall. Flooding incidents are likely to arise with little warning, sometimes as little as 30 minutes resulting in limited time to implement emergency measures and flood defences. Fortunately, the volumes of water involved are considerably less than long regional rivers so the flooding incident will be easier to recover from.

3.10 Coventry has an obligation to meet the goals of the Government’s River basin management plans (2022) to protect and improve the quality of the water environment and to ensure consistency with the National Flood and Coastal Erosion Risk Management Strategy for England. The city has responded to this through the Coventry Local Flood Risk Management Strategy (2022).

3.11 Flooding in urban areas like Coventry has been made worse by decades of development, paving over permeable surfaces and loss of green space, removing an important source of natural filtration which slows water entering the drainage network. The Council and its partners are working to take steps to address this, which includes collaboration with Severn Trent on flow separation projects to reduce the storm water in combined sewers with the use of retrofit sustainable urban drainage systems within highways, public realm and pocket parks throughout the city to help reduce sewage spills into Coventry’s rivers.

3.12 There are aspirations to create a network of new natural green spaces throughout the city to support sustainable urban drainage and climate resilience alongside boosting biodiversity. Nature-based engineering solutions such as rain gardens and bio-swales can be delivered across neighbourhoods and involve creating shallow areas of ground with soft landscaping that collect water runoff from surrounding areas. They provide a method of capturing rain and surface water and slowing down water run-off, filtering the water and utilising it to water plants and trees in the process. This reduces the strain on existing drainage infrastructure and the risk of surface water flooding by absorbing and slowing the flow of water. Detention basins are larger scale interventions that can serve as mini-wetland areas in urban environments, which are great for attracting wildlife.

Heat and Drought

3.13 The following graph illustrates the local projections for rising summer average temperature from the Meteorological Office. There is also an identified trend of more frequent and hotter summer heatwaves, which coupled as increased intensity of rainfall but overall reduced level of rain across the year presents significant risks to our city. 

Figure 5 – Temperature change projections and ranges from 1981 to 2100 (Met Office)

 

3.14 We know that the density of concrete buildings and road surfaces in cities are absorbing and radiating heat creating what is referred to as an Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect where the city is considerably hotter than the surrounding countryside. The figure 6 below shows a marked difference in temperature within the city centre in comparison to the surrounding areas. 

Figure 6 – Heat map of Coventry (CAG Consultants, 2024)

Figure 6 – Heat map of Coventry (CAG Consultants, 2024)

3.15 Coventry ranks 14th out of all English authorities for the number of neighbourhoods deemed high-risk from extreme heat. A University of Manchester Study (2022) identified 69 neighbourhoods across the city as most vulnerable to extreme heat that should be prioritised for climate change adaptation. Older people and young children fall into the most high-risk groups for heatwaves, but other factors including the amount of nearby green space, type of housing, access to health facilities and transport can also impact on the vulnerability of local communities. The health impacts of hotter periods could be exacerbated by water shortages, Coventry is in part of the country that is classed as seriously water stressed, adding to our risk exposure – particularly the impact on drinking water supply. We must involve communities in planning for climate change adaptation, prioritising those areas identified as most vulnerable to the impacts.

The role of nature in adaptation

3.16 Unpredictable seasons and extreme weather events are pushing UK wildlife out of sync, causing chaos for our natural ecosystems and contributing to wildlife decline. Prioritising nature-based interventions is important not only to create a more resilient city, but also to support nature recovery.

3.17 The use of natural vegetation and planting of trees helps to cool urban areas and reduce flood risk. This could include an ecologically sensitive approach through Sustainable Urban Drainage schemes (SUDs), with measures such as rain gardens and wetlands to hold water and slow the rate of flow into drains and sewers. This provides a natural filter that assists the improvement of water quality, reduces flood risk as well as supports habitats for wildlife. Increasing tree cover and green spaces across the city will have a significant impact in helping to create more attractive and climate resilient neighbourhoods, particularly in areas deemed most vulnerable.

3.18 We also need to consider more drought resistant planting and tree species that can cope with hotter temperatures. This is going to be an increasingly difficult challenge, and we will need to ensure that new trees and plants are more climate resilient and consider tree pit designs and watering regimes to ensure they thrive.

3.19 Green roofs and living walls not only make buildings interesting and attractive but help to insulate buildings in winter and keep them cool in summer. Living walls can reduce the energy needed for air conditioning systems by as much as 33% as well as absorbing gaseous pollutants and buffering sound. We are already rolling these out in Coventry (figure 7) and are seeking to deliver more.

Living Wall at Pepper Lane

Living Wall at Pepper Lane

Impacts upon infrastructure 

3.20 The changing climate is impacting on our key infrastructure. Many of the city’s 143,000 homes are not designed to cope with more extreme temperatures. We will need to work with communities to plan for this change and empower them to adapt their homes whenever possible. This is also a key concern for new developments, ensuring that homes are designed and built to be fit for the future which will be addressed by the Local Plan Review.

3.21 Climate change is already impacting on our transport network, with an increase in potholes and road failures as a result of extreme temperatures and heavier rainfall. To mitigate this, we need to consider the types of road surfacing used in the future which will be capable of withstanding increased temperature levels. Highways England is already adopting French standards where their road surfaces are subjected to higher surface temperatures. We are also used to seeing UK rail services impacted by extreme weather events, resulting in speed restrictions and cancellation of services. This is a key issue that Network Rail are addressing to create a more resilient rail network of the future (Climate change adaptation - Network Rail). 

3.22 Extreme temperatures will put a strain on the city’s digital infrastructure, which has the ability to significantly impact the delivery of essential services and business. Data Centres are normally designed to operate at upper temperatures from 35 to 38oC. They will need to be designed to adapt to cope with considerably higher temperatures.

3.23 Climate change also threatens our energy and water infrastructure, which could have big impacts on us all if outages occur. It’s important that we have emergency systems in place to mitigate this. A local resilient energy supply will help to reduce our risk exposure, which could include more local renewables and energy stored in batteries to provide supply to meet demand and critical back up supply if national infrastructure fails.

Impacts upon health 

3.24 Climatic impacts upon food production both locally and globally are affecting the availability and cost of fresh produce, with implications to health and wellbeing particularly for those living on lower incomes. There are particular risks around depletion of soil nutrient quality for growing as well as the working conditions for people and the safe storage of food in hotter temperatures. The need for local food production, such as community food growing initiatives will become increasingly important and to help us become more resilient as a city.

3.25 Rising temperatures will require adaptation of public buildings and workplaces to be equipped to deal with more extreme heat. This will be particularly important for more vulnerable members of the community, and require prioritisation of schools, NHS facilities and care homes. This is a chance to improve the quality of facilities across the city, as well as increase green spaces and trees, particularly for those areas identified as most at risk.

3.26 Temperature and humidity have a significant effect upon the incidence of gaseous pollutants (e.g. Nitrous Oxides and ground level Ozone) and their impact upon human health, particularly people who suffer from respiratory diseases like asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We will need smart systems in place to alert people who have such conditions by issuing warnings when the levels of pollutants exceed certain levels where it may be safer for them to remain indoors. This is something that could be developed as part of our Smart City approach to increase use of on-street smart sensors such as on lighting columns, to provide real-time data on air quality. 

3.27 Front line staff delivering services will be key to supporting the most vulnerable and training for these staff is really important as they may need to change the way they deliver a service to respond to extreme weather events.

3.28 The Government’s Health Effects of Climate Change (HECC) Report in 2023 identifies projected climate change having a significantly increased risk to human health and increase vector-borne diseases (such as biting insects, mosquitos, midges, gnats, sand flies and ticks). This will result in the incidence of diseases currently known to tropical areas notably Dengue Fever and Zika Virus. This requires increased awareness amongst health practitioners and the public to look out for symptoms.

Impacts upon the Economy

3.29 On our current trajectory, the London School of Economics estimates the total cost of climate change damages to increase from the present 1.1% of GDP to 3.3% by 2050 and 7.4% by 2100.

3.30 The growing risks from climate change are likely to increase the costs of insurance premiums Insurance companies are likely to introduce certain protective measures for properties deemed at risk, all of which will in turn have a cost implication. 

3.31 Climate change could impact on productivity, with people going off sick as a consequence of climate change or being delayed or prevented from getting to work as a result of disruption to transport services. This has the potential to generate significant economic losses and exacerbate the UK’s existing challenges around productivity. To tackle this, we need to be more flexible in our ways of working, as well as adapting workplace environments to increase resilience.

3.32 There is a clear ‘invest to save’ case which will require significant investment to protect essential utilities e.g. water supply, energy and transport infrastructure from the impact of extreme climatic events or face higher costs down the line dealing with the impacts of lack of preparedness. This will require detailed planned priorities for investment, ensuring interventions respond to the short-, medium and longer-term risks.

Planning for Climate Change Adaptation

3.33 We need to take steps to adapt to climate change and ensure communities, infrastructure and livelihoods aren’t disrupted by increasingly frequent and severe shocks and prioritise action to ensure our approach involves and supports the city’s most vulnerable communities in planning for their future. The Council will play a leading role in mobilising partner agencies and organisations in the development of an Adaptation and Resilience Plan for the city, alongside working with communities so that they are better prepared for events that cannot be prevented so they recover quicker. Our planning approach will aim to build back better, wherever possible.

3.34 As part of increasing our resilience we need to better understand our exposure to short, medium and long-term climate risks and identify practical measures to addressing them. We also need to be clear on the costs of being underprepared, as well as identifying the opportunities taking action presents to improve lives, deliver more robust infrastructure and help promote nature recovery. 

3.35 West Midlands Combined Authority has already carried out a high-level study West Midlands Climate Change Adaptation Plan 2021-2026, which gives a useful regional overview. The developing Coventry Adaptation and Resilience Plan will build a better understanding of more localised risks and will develop a detailed action plan to support the city’s long-term planning approach and complement the existing City Emergency Plan.

3.36 There are also challenges around planning policy, including land management and building design for new developments, as well as consideration for how existing buildings will need to be retrofitted. This was seen as lowest priority in the feedback to the draft Climate Change Strategy which could be due to a lack of understanding of the issues and risks, particularly as much of the work on adaptation and resilience focuses on future scenarios. There is a need to raise public awareness and to work with residents, businesses and organisations, particularly those located in areas that are the most vulnerable to the impacts.

Recommendations

3.37 Adapting to climate change and making communities more resilient is crucial in order to reduce our exposure to climate risks, and protect our communities, infrastructure and natural environment, and our economy. Recommendations for key action from the Adaptation and Resilience Pathway Group are: 

  • In order for Coventry to become more climate resilient there is a need for physical interventions, which could include changes to building design, materials used and nature-based solutions, alongside raising awareness of the issues and risks to ensure as a city we are more prepared to deal with incidents.
  • Significant investment will be needed to support the city’s efforts to adapt to climate change over time. Taking timely action in priority areas will create opportunities to improve the city for all, create more attractive neighbourhoods, healthier communities, support nature recovery and protect lives and livelihoods.
  • This all needs to be brought together through the development of a Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience Plan. This will be used to underpin and influence Council policy documents going forward, including the Local Plan Review, citywide risk planning forums and embedded into operational service planning.