Market Position Statement 2024 - 2029

We collect data from a range of sources to build a comprehensive picture of local need to plan our current and future provision requirements. This includes data from the Census 2021, Joint Strategic Needs Assessment (JSNA), POPPI (Projecting Older People Population Information) and PANSI (Projecting Adult Needs and Service Information) estimates, annual adult social care demand data for Coventry (for example, the number of assessments, reviews, services provided or funded), alongside individual, carer, and provider feedback. As part of our Improving Lives programme, significant diagnostic analysis was undertaken in respect of our systems, processes, and individual experience, with projections on the impact of this work on future demand noted below. 

General demand trends 2024-2029

• Overall, we anticipate an increase in general demand for adult social care, however, we will be investigating methods for supporting people differently to manage this demand effectively. This includes ensuring the market is working in a preventative, enablement manner, utilising community resources and alternatives to regulated care wherever possible and the roll out of the Improving Lives programme across short term service provision to improve outcomes whilst creating efficiencies.
• There is a growing need for people requiring accommodation and care presenting with increasingly complex and challenging needs.
• Home Support: Despite a growing older peoples demographic, early indications 30 Adult Social Care Market Position Statement 2024- 2029 Adult Social Care Market Position Statement 2024- 2029 31note a reduction of over 2000 long term care hours per week is anticipated by 2027 as a result of the Improving Lives programme. 
• Older people's residential care: From the work of our Improving Lives Programme a potential reduction in commissioned support of 16 short-term and 51 longterm beds are anticipated each week by 2027. Longer term we do however note anticipated growth in Coventry’s older people’s population over the next 20 years which will require improved standards of accommodation, facilities, and amenities over the current stock. 
• Residential (learning disability, autism and mental health): Demand for this provision has stabilised over the past five years in part due to the introduction of new supported living schemes developed within the city. There will however continue to be ongoing demand for residential care, in particular to meet the needs of individuals with more complex behaviours that challenge.
• Nursing: Based on population projections and trends in comparison to the availability of current nursing stock, we anticipate an increase in the demand for nursing care, especially for adults under 65.
• Day opportunities: Demand for day opportunity services has remained consistent for the last five years (average 433 individuals accessing this support per annum). We anticipate future demand to reduce as more people utilise mainstream services and support available in the community through the Community Alternatives programme.
• Housing with Care: We have seen evidence of reduced demand in commissioned HwC support over the past few years, partly due to people wanting to remain at home. Projected demand for both commissioned and privately funded individuals is noted in Figure 7. 
  o Supporting living: The number of supported living placements has increased year on year for the past 5 years across both mental health and learning disability / autism provision. It is anticipated demand for supported living placements will continue as the Council seeks to meet accommodation-based support needs in a manner that promotes a greater degree of independence.